Why Herdman Is Betting Indonesia's National Team on the Persija Core

Three days before the FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026 kicks off, John Herdman produced a squad shock. He dropped five Persib Bandung players, called up defender Shayne Pattynama, and expanded Indonesia's squad from 23 to 24. What draws attention is the club colors of the players kept. Among the 24 names, six are from Persija Jakarta. A national team built around one club, just before an official tournament, is the clearest tactical signal before the ball rolls.

The tournament runs from September 25 to October 5, 2026, with a maximum of four matches for the champion. Indonesia are 118th in the world with approximately 1,157.05 points. If they win all four matches, they gain only 16.80 points. That is a small increase, especially against the target of breaking into the world top 100. But the public debate does not stop at points. Herdman has sent a message about squad structure, and that message can be read through club loyalty.

Tension is visible when Bobotoh, Persib's supporter group, defended Shin Tae-yong, Persija's coach, after he was called a pendatang – an outsider. Persib supporters defending a rival coach is rare. It shows respect for a former national-team coach can cross club lines, but it also shows the Persib–Persija rift remains just below the surface. When Herdman dropped five Persib men and added a Persija defender, anyone familiar with Indonesian football could predict the reaction.

I used to believe in absolute data until the 2026 World Cup taught me a lesson. Since then, before each tournament, I ask not how strong the squad is, but whether this system can collapse. For Indonesia, the preliminary answer lies in the Persija block. Nadeo Argawinata, Dony Tri Pamungkas, Rizky Ridho, Jordi Amat, Rayhan Hannan and Shayne Pattynama form a familiar spine. They know who pushes up, who covers, who holds position when opponents transition fast. In a four-match tournament, time to gel is nearly zero. Using an existing club block is a logical way to shorten the adaptation phase.

I have no pressing, PPDA or xG numbers from the original report. I only have a 24-man list. In international football, a list is also a tactical message. It reveals trust, priorities and the direction a coach chooses before considering specific opponents. Herdman does not need to speak at length; he has shown it by dropping five names and calling up a defender who is not fully fit.

Looking at the positions of the six Persija players, Herdman prioritizes solidity. Nadeo is a goalkeeper, Dony is a full-back, Rizky and Jordi are center-backs, Rayhan and Pattynama can play in defense. This is an almost complete defensive block. It suggests his plan starts with not conceding, then considers scoring. In a coefficient-based tournament, that strategy makes sense.

That choice has a price in domestic politics. Persib loses five places, and also loses the status of representing a rising football school. Persib fans may see this as hidden punishment, while Persija fans may see it as recognition. Herdman almost deliberately places the national team on the country's biggest club rivalry. Whether he intends that or not, the media will tell that story throughout the tournament.

A good formation is a picture; a great formation is a living system. Herdman seems to want to build a living system from Persija's material rather than draw from scratch. But that system lives only if Pattynama is healthy. The VIVA roundup says the defender has not fully recovered, and observer Bung Harpa has expressed doubt. Putting a not-ready player in a 24-man squad means taking the place of a fit alternative. If Pattynama misses matches, the Persija defensive block loses a piece, and Herdman becomes a target before the first game.

There is also the Laurin Ulrich question. The Indonesian-heritage player was called up by Germany's U-21 side while Indonesia's federation tries to persuade him to switch. This competition resembles a race for international representation more than a transfer. If Germany gives Ulrich a competitive cap at a higher level, Indonesia's chances shrink. If Indonesia succeeds, they gain a young talent without a transfer fee. But the success of naturalization also exposes the weakness of domestic youth development.

From my experience following matches, teams built around one club block often start solidly but become fragile when opponents target individual weaknesses. One defeat is enough to make the whole plan change direction. The ASEAN Cup is not a place for experiments. It is a place where one bad result can destroy a revival story built over months. With a maximum of four matches, a single loss ends any further point calculations.

The counterintuitive point is not that Herdman favors Persija. It is the top-100 story. Looking at the math, with a maximum of 16.80 points, Indonesia can hardly move from 118th to the top 100 after only four matches. The points gap between 118th and the top 100 is usually larger than this maximum gain. The numbers in the report undermine its own attractive headline. Winning the ASEAN Cup is a matter of honor; entering the top 100 is an emotional story. Mixing the two will lead to disappointment.

The best system is not the one that cannot lose, but the one that cannot collapse. A team with only four matches to collect points cannot afford to collapse because of one injury, one bad decision, or pressure from a supporter group. Herdman is trying to create stability by relying on the existing understanding inside the Persija block. But that stability is more fragile than it looks, because it depends on Pattynama's fitness, Persib fans' acceptance, and whether the players can carry huge expectations.

How you stand up after defeat defines class, not how you celebrate victory. The wrong article in 2026 taught me that correcting a mistake is faster than defending it. Today I only offer a judgment based on available data, and I am ready to revise if the ball rolls differently. After October 5, will Indonesia dare to read the 16.80-point figure again instead of continuing the top-100 illusion? The answer will show whether this is a real start or just a well-packaged media campaign.